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Website banner for Conducttr’s GeoEconomics Wargame. Background features a stylized illustration of a red and gold dragon. Overlay text reads: ‘GeoEconomics Wargame — Developed with Geostrategic Intelligence Group’. Below, the page introduces the wargame scenario focused on rare earth metal dependencies, highlighting China’s monopoly and Europe’s strategic vulnerability, with a paragraph describing the role-play simulation involving 40 players across four industries.
GeoEconomics Wargame
Developed with Geostrategic Intelligence Group
Europe’s Rare Earth Problem
China’s monopoly on rare earth metals impacts Europe.
Rising Dragon Crouching Bull is a pubic wargame co-created by Conducttr and consultancy, Geostrategic Intelligence Group. 40 players across four industries - solar panels, defence, batteries and semiconductors - must create a supply chain strategy to diversify supply or move to other technologies.
Scenario
It’s February 2025: the Ukraine war continues with Russian support from China, Iran, and North Korea. China’s increased backing of Russia has led to Western sanctions and Chinese retaliation against European car imports. Donald Trump’s 2024 re-election heightens tensions with NATO, pushing Europe to increase defense spending and potentially weakening U.S. alliances in Asia. Meanwhile, China leverages the situation to expand global influence, challenging U.S. financial dominance by promoting the yuan through its CIPS payment system.
Exercise
40 players across four industries—solar panels, defence, batteries, and semiconductors—must craft a supply chain strategy amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China.

Players must anticipate potential Western sanctions and navigate supply chain dependencies, with four possible futures depending on U.S.-China relations and their strategies regarding Avenenium and its alternatives.

Avenenium is a fictional rare earth metal.

The game lasted 3 days.
Environment
Participants pre-registered for the wargame online and attended a brief introduction in Helsinki at the Geoeconomics Week conference.

The game was intended to be played in short “dips” of 15 minutes over the course of the conference.

Publishing, collaboration and negotiations were all conducted via Conducttr.

There was 1 person in Exercise Control from Conducttr and 1 person from Geostrategic Intelligence Group to provide expert analysis of activities.
Screenshot of a belief-based AI simulation interface titled “Artificial Intelligence Beliefs.” Multiple persona cards (e.g., Benjamin Lockhart, Alexandra Baker, Dex Smith) are shown with social media-style posts about a suspected cyberattack on Taiwan. Each persona has a designated channel (e.g., MicroBlog) and a message reflecting a specific stance, such as neutral, skeptical, or security-focused. In the center, a grid maps personas into belief categories like #Alliances_Champion and #Defence_Skeptic. A sidebar explains how AI-generated content is guided by combinations of beliefs to reflect diverse opinions on geopolitical events.
Artificial Intelligence Beliefs
This exercise utilised our new beliefs system which tells the AI to create more nuanced content.

The diagram on the left shows how we positioned different cyber commentators (“influencers”) to give a spectrum of opinions based on belief combinations.
Slide titled “Options and Actions” showing six beige boxes on a dark patterned background, each representing a player decision in a strategy game. Options include: (1) Sanction – post public statement, (2) Negotiate/Partner – email stakeholder, (3) Invest – post public statement, (4) Diversify/Decouple – post public statement, (5) Discredit – email the press, attack on social media, (6) Promote – post public statement, email the press, contact influencer. Text beside the slide explains it was shown in-game to remind players of available actions.
Player Advice
The slide on the left was available in-game and was shown through-out the game to remind players of the actions they could take.
Road to Crisis
This document was issued to registered players 3 days before the live participation.

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Post-wargame Presentation
This presentation explains a little more behind the wargame and it’s preparation.

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